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Post by crazydwarf on Aug 7, 2013 1:53:27 GMT
I guess I'll get things started...
Vote: Bumboat!
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Post by smunkee on Aug 7, 2013 3:43:10 GMT
Bumboat isn't an option, but it IS time to vote now. Go ahead guys, jump in.
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 7, 2013 3:47:16 GMT
Bumboat isn't an option, but it IS time to vote now. Go ahead guys, jump in. Okay, so we know for sure that two of them are males, given the pronouns used. The other two have yet to be gender IDed. As of right now, since we know for sure there's two males, we should probably focus on the males in this game, due to a higher chance of killing a Mafia member. Who are the males in this game that are still alive?
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Post by smunkee on Aug 7, 2013 5:08:22 GMT
I don't know if I've mentioned yet, but I should have you're free to caucus via PM if you want to. People can and probably will lie to you but if you want to trust someone and try to work together you absolutely have that freedom.
*general you here.
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Dipshit
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Post by Dipshit on Aug 7, 2013 13:22:47 GMT
I once again believe Choronzon to be the killer!
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Post by crazydwarf on Aug 7, 2013 14:16:07 GMT
I once again believe Choronzon to be the killer! Do you have any rationale behind it it is it a feeling?
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Post by Choro on Aug 7, 2013 14:37:16 GMT
I once again believe Choronzon to be the killer! Do you have any rationale behind it it is it a feeling? Only his desire to cover his own guilt! False flag! False flag! Batman is the killer.
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SCIENCE
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Post by SCIENCE on Aug 7, 2013 20:12:50 GMT
This thing has got me thinking. - Poli was very quick to point out that smunkee's story used a male pronoun on purpose. Maybe to save her own hide?
- Poli and Batman are without a doubt in contact with each other
- Indi is quick to agree with Poli, probably to save her own hide as well
- Choronzon points out that the accuser of Batman is dead
- Batman still believes Choronzon is the killer
Now, Choronzon and the Batman have a long history of shenanigans. So it could all be a ruse and that they're both in league with each other (and Poli). So, then I ask all of you and myself... If you have the opportunity to kill the god damned Batman. Will you take it? Will you let Napkiraly be dead in vain? Personally, I say, Nay! Therefore, I'm accusing the Batman.
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Post by Poli on Aug 7, 2013 20:27:07 GMT
This thing has got me thinking. - Poli was very quick to point out that smunkee's story used a male pronoun on purpose. Maybe to save her own hide?
- Poli and Batman are without a doubt in contact with each other
- Indi is quick to agree with Poli, probably to save her own hide as well
- Choronzon points out that the accuser of Batman is dead
- Batman still believes Choronzon is the killer
Now, Choronzon and the Batman have a long history of shenanigans. So it could all be a ruse and that they're both in league with each other (and Poli). So, then I ask all of you and myself... If you have the opportunity to kill the god damned Batman. Will you take it? Will you let Napkiraly be dead in vain? Personally, I say, Nay! Therefore, I'm accusing the Batman. For the record, Poli and Batman's only contact with each other about this game was looking suspiciously at each other while both CLAIMING to be townies. In this context, I don't trust him - he's sneaky! (That said, I don't THINK he's mafia, but I wouldn't be shocked if he were. Like I said - sneaky!) (Also, I didn't point out the gendered pronouns - crazydwarf did. I just noted that he seemed to have missed one of the uses of "he.")
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That Caninope Guy
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Post by That Caninope Guy on Aug 7, 2013 21:16:49 GMT
I'm blaming the Batman. God didn't just damn him for no reason.
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Post by crazydwarf on Aug 7, 2013 23:16:59 GMT
This thing has got me thinking. - Poli and Batman are without a doubt in contact with each other
Did I miss something? is this because they looked at one another as Poli claims in another post or is something else feeding this? I demand logic! Otherwise I'm liable to do something completely random and vote Smunk. I know she knows who the killers are. If she was completely innocent, she'd tell us.
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Post by SCIENCE on Aug 7, 2013 23:22:32 GMT
This thing has got me thinking. - Poli and Batman are without a doubt in contact with each other
Did I miss something? is this because they looked at one another as Poli claims in another post or is something else feeding this? I demand logic! Otherwise I'm liable to do something completely random and vote Smunk. I know she knows who the killers are. If she was completely innocent, she'd tell us. They're in a committed RL relationship with each other.
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Post by crazydwarf on Aug 7, 2013 23:55:30 GMT
Did I miss something? is this because they looked at one another as Poli claims in another post or is something else feeding this? I demand logic! Otherwise I'm liable to do something completely random and vote Smunk. I know she knows who the killers are. If she was completely innocent, she'd tell us. They're in a committed RL relationship with each other. okay. Well, if there are 14 players, and 4 of them are killers. 1 has already died. 4 out of 13 are killers.... ~ 1 out of 3. Does that translate into a 66% chance that one of them is a killer? Anyone good with statistics to confirm my maths?
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 0:06:09 GMT
They're in a committed RL relationship with each other. okay. Well, if there are 14 players, and 4 of them are killers. 1 has already died. 4 out of 13 are killers.... ~ 1 out of 3. Does that translate into a 66% chance that one of them is a killer? Anyone good with statistics to confirm my maths? That doesn't sound right from my grasp of basic stats.
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 0:16:48 GMT
They're in a committed RL relationship with each other. okay. Well, if there are 14 players, and 4 of them are killers. 1 has already died. 4 out of 13 are killers.... ~ 1 out of 3. Does that translate into a 66% chance that one of them is a killer? Anyone good with statistics to confirm my maths? I am sleepy and am thus forgetting how to do probability problems properly, but I'm sure that math is wrong - if you could just add the odds that way, it would mean that there was a 100% chance of at least one of any three players being in the mafia. Which is obviously not true, since there are more than three townies in the game and it's perfectly possible that a random list of three players would be all townies. If the odds of any given player being mafia are 1 in 3, the odds of at least 1 in any 2 given players being mafia should be higher, but not double. Give me a bit and maybe I'll actually remember how to do those problems, heh. (Also, I seriously promise that I haven't teamed up with anybody, including NA. I don't trust any of you yet. )
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 0:17:37 GMT
okay. Well, if there are 14 players, and 4 of them are killers. 1 has already died. 4 out of 13 are killers.... ~ 1 out of 3. Does that translate into a 66% chance that one of them is a killer? Anyone good with statistics to confirm my maths? I am sleepy and am thus forgetting how to do probability problems properly, but I'm sure that math is wrong - if you could just add the odds that way, it would mean that there was a 100% chance of at least one of any three players being in the mafia. Which is obviously not true, since there are more than three townies in the game and it's perfectly possible that a random list of three players would be all townies. If the odds of any given player being mafia are 1 in 3, the odds of at least 1 in any 2 given players being mafia should be higher, but not double. Give me a bit and maybe I'll actually remember how to do those problems, heh. (Also, I seriously promise that I haven't teamed up with anybody, including NA. I don't trust any of you yet. ) I'm already working on the math myself. You're looking for a "at least one" calculation.
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 0:24:47 GMT
I am sleepy and am thus forgetting how to do probability problems properly, but I'm sure that math is wrong - if you could just add the odds that way, it would mean that there was a 100% chance of at least one of any three players being in the mafia. Which is obviously not true, since there are more than three townies in the game and it's perfectly possible that a random list of three players would be all townies. If the odds of any given player being mafia are 1 in 3, the odds of at least 1 in any 2 given players being mafia should be higher, but not double. Give me a bit and maybe I'll actually remember how to do those problems, heh. (Also, I seriously promise that I haven't teamed up with anybody, including NA. I don't trust any of you yet. ) I'm already working on the math myself. You're looking for a "at least one" calculation. Yup. I definitely used to know how to solve this sort of thing, but I am old and haven't had any reason to use remotely advanced math in a gazillion years. You'll probably beat me to it.
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 0:29:02 GMT
I am sleepy and am thus forgetting how to do probability problems properly, but I'm sure that math is wrong - if you could just add the odds that way, it would mean that there was a 100% chance of at least one of any three players being in the mafia. Which is obviously not true, since there are more than three townies in the game and it's perfectly possible that a random list of three players would be all townies. If the odds of any given player being mafia are 1 in 3, the odds of at least 1 in any 2 given players being mafia should be higher, but not double. Give me a bit and maybe I'll actually remember how to do those problems, heh. (Also, I seriously promise that I haven't teamed up with anybody, including NA. I don't trust any of you yet. ) I'm already working on the math myself. You're looking for a "at least one" calculation. Okay, so I did the math, and I'm looking at a 52.07% chance that at least one of our admins (The God Damned Batman and/or Poli) are mafia members. Math: P(mafia) = 4/13 P(~mafia) = 9/13 P(Poli) = 1/13 P(The God Damned Batman) = 1/13 P(Poli and The God Damned Batman) = 2/13 P(at least one of our admins are mafia members) = 1 – P(none of our admins are mafia members) = 1 – P(~mafia)^2 = 1 – (9/13)^2 ~ 0.5207 By the way: "at least one" means this: P(Poli | mafia) + P(Neo Art | mafia) + P(admins | mafia) If you want, I can calculate the chance that Poli or Neo Art is a mafia member (individually).
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 0:33:50 GMT
I'm already working on the math myself. You're looking for a "at least one" calculation. Okay, so I did the math, and I'm looking at a 52.07% chance that at least one of our admins (The God Damned Batman and/or Poli) are mafia members. Math: P(mafia) = 4/13 P(~mafia) = 9/13 P(Poli) = 1/13 P(The God Damned Batman) = 1/13 P(Poli and The God Damned Batman) = 2/13 P(at least one of our admins are mafia members) = 1 – P(none of our admins are mafia members) = 1 – P(~mafia)^2 = 1 – (9/13)^2 ~ 0.5207 That number seems like it makes sense. So, in other words, out of any given two people, there's about a 50/50 chance that at least one of them is an alien. (That said, for obvious reasons, I happen to know that the odds of either NA or I being an alien are actually 1/3 - i.e. the odds of NA being an alien. )
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 0:35:33 GMT
Okay, so I did the math, and I'm looking at a 52.07% chance that at least one of our admins (The God Damned Batman and/or Poli) are mafia members. Math: P(mafia) = 4/13 P(~mafia) = 9/13 P(Poli) = 1/13 P(The God Damned Batman) = 1/13 P(Poli and The God Damned Batman) = 2/13 P(at least one of our admins are mafia members) = 1 – P(none of our admins are mafia members) = 1 – P(~mafia)^2 = 1 – (9/13)^2 ~ 0.5207 That number seems like it makes sense. So, in other words, out of any given two people, there's about a 50/50 chance that at least one of them is an alien. (That said, for obvious reasons, I happen to know that the odds of either NA or I being an alien are actually 1/3 - i.e. the odds of NA being an alien. ) Essentially yes. Also, it won't be 1/3, it's be P(Neo Art | mafia), which (off the top of my head) would be (1/13)(4/13) or a 4/269 (about 1.49%) chance that NA's a member.
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 0:51:02 GMT
That number seems like it makes sense. So, in other words, out of any given two people, there's about a 50/50 chance that at least one of them is an alien. (That said, for obvious reasons, I happen to know that the odds of either NA or I being an alien are actually 1/3 - i.e. the odds of NA being an alien. ) Essentially yes. Also, it won't be 1/3, it's be P(The God Damned Batman | mafia), which (off the top of my head) would be (1/13)(4/13) or a 4/269 (about 1.49%) chance that NA's a member. Since I know I'm not mafia, the odds of any given person out of the twelve people who aren't me being mafia ought to be 4/12, I would think? Also, getting out of stats for a minute - it occurs to me that mafia members would very possibly prefer not to draw attention to themselves. I think we might want to consider lynching someone who has been active on the forum as a whole in the past couple of days but suspiciously quiet in this thread. Which, looking at the list of players, looks like it would apply to both Agritum and Dogdoo7. ...come to think of it, a pooping dog could be said to have "poor impulse control," right? I don't know if that was meant to be a clue, but it's all we've got to go on right now. Barring a better suggestion, I vote Dogdoo7.
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 0:54:04 GMT
Essentially yes. Also, it won't be 1/3, it's be P(The God Damned Batman | mafia), which (off the top of my head) would be (1/13)(4/13) or a 4/269 (about 1.49%) chance that NA's a member. Since I know I'm not mafia, the odds of any given person out of the twelve people who aren't me being mafia ought to be 4/12, I would think? Also, getting out of stats for a minute - it occurs to me that mafia members would very possibly prefer not to draw attention to themselves. I think we might want to consider lynching someone who has been active on the forum as a whole in the past couple of days but suspiciously quiet in this thread. Which, looking at the list of players, looks like it would apply to both Agritum and Dogdoo7. ...come to think of it, a pooping dog could be said to have "poor impulse control," right? I don't know if that was meant to be a clue, but it's all we've got to go on right now. Barring a better suggestion, I vote Dogdoo7. Probably, yeah, derp. I was thinking of probability trees. >_>
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Post by crazydwarf on Aug 8, 2013 1:07:55 GMT
"Poor impulse control" were my words, a possible interpretation of the scene. Not saying it isn't the correct interpretation of a possible clue, just want to make sure that it isn't confused as something that was stated in the scene itself.
I don't pay attention, currently, to the rest of the forum, so I don't know if Argitum or Dogdoo7 are active anywhere else. I don't recall seeing those names as posters in this thread. That could be an indication that they are unaware we've even started. Since Smunk notified the killers of their role somehow, it might be safer to assume they are not the killers and you're attempting to cast suspicion on them as an attempt to get it off of either you or BM (that's funnier to me than calling him batman... sorry)
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 1:18:28 GMT
"Poor impulse control" were my words, a possible interpretation of the scene. Not saying it isn't the correct interpretation of a possible clue, just want to make sure that it isn't confused as something that was stated in the scene itself. I don't pay attention, currently, to the rest of the forum, so I don't know if Argitum or Dogdoo7 are active anywhere else. I don't recall seeing those names as posters in this thread. That could be an indication that they are unaware we've even started. Since Smunk notified the killers of their role somehow, it might be safer to assume they are not the killers and you're attempt to cast suspicion on them as an attempt to get it off of either you or BM (that's funnier to me than calling him batman... sorry) Oops, good call, I was mentally swapping that into the actual scene, where the phrase was apparently "only a bit of self-control." That doesn't seem like it fits quite as well with the pooping-dog idea. Phooey. I got a "you're a townie" private message; I assume the mafia got similar "you're mafia" messages, so people who've logged on since the game began should know their roles. I dunno if I'm right and they're actively trying to be inconspicuous, but it's as good a theory as I can come up with at present. (Also, hehe, BM.)
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Post by crazydwarf on Aug 8, 2013 1:19:23 GMT
Also, since the killers have already had one night seen, it might be safe to assume they would have made sure they were all contributing to their action.
Then again, it might be a good strategy to have at least one of the killers lie low and avoid drawing attention.
AAAAARGH! You've got me arguing myself in circles now.
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Indigo
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 1:24:16 GMT
"Poor impulse control" were my words, a possible interpretation of the scene. Not saying it isn't the correct interpretation of a possible clue, just want to make sure that it isn't confused as something that was stated in the scene itself. I don't pay attention, currently, to the rest of the forum, so I don't know if Argitum or Dogdoo7 are active anywhere else. I don't recall seeing those names as posters in this thread. That could be an indication that they are unaware we've even started. Since Smunk notified the killers of their role somehow, it might be safer to assume they are not the killers and you're attempt to cast suspicion on them as an attempt to get it off of either you or BM (that's funnier to me than calling him batman... sorry) Oops, good call, I was mentally swapping that into the actual scene, where the phrase was apparently "only a bit of self-control." That doesn't seem like it fits quite as well with the pooping-dog idea. Phooey. I got a "you're a townie" private message; I assume the mafia got similar "you're mafia" messages, so people who've logged on since the game began should know their roles. I dunno if I'm right and they're actively trying to be inconspicuous, but it's as good a theory as I can come up with at present. (Also, hehe, BM.) Has Agri logged in since the notifications were sent out? I know dogdoo7 has, which means he should have received it. Also, Poli, is it even wise to say "I'm a townie!"? I would think that the other players would pay attention and wonder whether your constant assertion is an attempt to cover up your activities.
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SCIENCE
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Post by SCIENCE on Aug 8, 2013 1:26:37 GMT
Since Smunk notified the killers of their role somehow Are we sure about that? I mean, Smunk is known to be a practical joker. Maybe she just said to everyone "you're a townie" and see what happens, while throwing a random die every night to see who will die as victim of the non-existent mafia
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 1:28:56 GMT
Oops, good call, I was mentally swapping that into the actual scene, where the phrase was apparently "only a bit of self-control." That doesn't seem like it fits quite as well with the pooping-dog idea. Phooey. I got a "you're a townie" private message; I assume the mafia got similar "you're mafia" messages, so people who've logged on since the game began should know their roles. I dunno if I'm right and they're actively trying to be inconspicuous, but it's as good a theory as I can come up with at present. (Also, hehe, BM.) Has Agri logged in since the notifications were sent out? I know dogdoo7 has, which means he should have received it. Also, Poli, is it even wise to say "I'm a townie!"? I would think that the other players would pay attention and wonder whether your constant assertion is an attempt to cover up your activities. Yup, they've both been online today, according to a quick glance at the members list. And heh, I dunno if it's wise or not. I guess we'll find out!
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Post by Indigo on Aug 8, 2013 1:31:21 GMT
Has Agri logged in since the notifications were sent out? I know dogdoo7 has, which means he should have received it. Also, Poli, is it even wise to say "I'm a townie!"? I would think that the other players would pay attention and wonder whether your constant assertion is an attempt to cover up your activities. Yup, they've both been online today, according to a quick glance at the members list. And heh, I dunno if it's wise or not. I guess we'll find out! Ah, so they do know. Hmmm. Probably not, but we'll see.
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Post by Poli on Aug 8, 2013 1:31:56 GMT
Oh, hey, I just noticed something. Based on the way Smunk wrote the scene, it sounds like, while the doctor protected the wrong person, whoever they protected was NOT in the mafia.
I don't know if the doctor noticed that, so I'm pointing it out because that seems like it might help in creating a townie alliance.
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