panicberry
7500+
Phantom of the Opera
God save the Berry!
Posts: 8,150
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Post by panicberry on Jun 18, 2014 0:37:32 GMT
I have no reason to not trust Herpes (imagine THAT sentence out of context). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean...just putting that out there. edit: Also, making it official. No voteedit: Prove me to be logically wrong, if you can, but that'd surprise me. Look, just because statistically the only rounds in which I actually got any significant amount of votes where the rounds in which I knew the exact identity of the mafia before I voted, just because logically my pattern is no more than a statistical aberration, that doesn't mean we can't take advantage of it for petty reasons.
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Post by jello on Jun 18, 2014 1:43:52 GMT
I vote for jello, because why change a winning horse? Your vote for me last game only happened to have worked out in your/the town's favor, thanks to my being bound to a mafiosi. I was otherwise an innocent.
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Post by whereyouthinkyoupoliying on Jun 18, 2014 5:51:44 GMT
I know you were but you can't argue with the result.
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Дьяково
6250+
Weird, but acceptable
Posts: 6,688
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Post by Дьяково on Jun 18, 2014 12:42:33 GMT
I know you were but you can't argue with the result. So you're banking on jello being mafia and/or love-bound to a mafioso?
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Post by Serrland on Jun 18, 2014 13:06:32 GMT
Look, just because statistically the only rounds in which I actually got any significant amount of votes where the rounds in which I knew the exact identity of the mafia before I voted, just because logically my pattern is no more than a statistical aberration, that doesn't mean we can't take advantage of it for petty reasons. New theory: You're actually a level 12 oracle with significant prophetic powers. You're just masking them and describing them instead as a "statistical aberration."
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panicberry
7500+
Phantom of the Opera
God save the Berry!
Posts: 8,150
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Post by panicberry on Jun 18, 2014 15:09:10 GMT
Look, just because statistically the only rounds in which I actually got any significant amount of votes where the rounds in which I knew the exact identity of the mafia before I voted, just because logically my pattern is no more than a statistical aberration, that doesn't mean we can't take advantage of it for petty reasons. New theory: You're actually a level 12 oracle with significant prophetic powers. You're just masking them and describing them instead as a "statistical aberration." Prediction: I will die within the first two rounds!
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Breadknife
1500+
One confusion tends to be its direct inspiration.
Posts: 1,888
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Post by Breadknife on Jun 18, 2014 15:26:37 GMT
ISWYDT
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Дьяково
6250+
Weird, but acceptable
Posts: 6,688
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Post by Дьяково on Jun 18, 2014 16:12:08 GMT
I Save Walruses, You Don Thimbles. ???
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Gamerdog
2000+
Benomia/Bezombia from NS
Posts: 2,209
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Post by Gamerdog on Jun 18, 2014 16:17:42 GMT
I See What You Did There alternatively I Sucked White and Yellow Dicks Today
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Post by whereyouthinkyoupoliying on Jun 18, 2014 17:34:57 GMT
I know you were but you can't argue with the result. So you're banking on jello being mafia and/or love-bound to a mafioso? Right now, I'm not banking on jello being anything, seeing how it's the first day. But I didn't want to vote "no vote" and voting for him let me add a light remark and a smiley, so hey.
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Post by whereyouthinkyoupoliying on Jun 18, 2014 17:41:08 GMT
More than half the day-time has already passed and the three early votes for Napkiraly stand unprotested and/or countered. Doesn't that pretty much mean that he's not Mafia?
Not that I have any better suggestions. Meh!
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Post by jello on Jun 18, 2014 17:46:55 GMT
I was going to say that it's unsporting to lynch someone on the first day on their first game, but it seems naprikaly played mafia last October.
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panicberry
7500+
Phantom of the Opera
God save the Berry!
Posts: 8,150
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Post by panicberry on Jun 18, 2014 18:16:19 GMT
I was going to say that it's unsporting to lynch someone on the first day on their first game, but it seems naprikaly played mafia last October. I was also lynched first on the first day of my first game. I would have been lynched first on the first day of my second game if Samurai didn't disappear.
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Gamerdog
2000+
Benomia/Bezombia from NS
Posts: 2,209
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Post by Gamerdog on Jun 18, 2014 18:26:38 GMT
If I'm not mistaken we only have like four hours left right?
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Hurdegaryp
2000+
Under the Radar
Hell Is Where The Heart Is
Posts: 2,479
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Post by Hurdegaryp on Jun 18, 2014 19:09:48 GMT
New theory: You're actually a level 12 oracle with significant prophetic powers. You're just masking them and describing them instead as a "statistical aberration." Prediction: I will die within the first two rounds! Don't be so optimistic. Your murderer may already be behind you right now.
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Дьяково
6250+
Weird, but acceptable
Posts: 6,688
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Post by Дьяково on Jun 18, 2014 19:24:48 GMT
More than half the day-time has already passed and the three early votes for Napkiraly stand unprotested and/or countered. Doesn't that pretty much mean that he's not Mafia? Not that I have any better suggestions. Meh! Quite possible... Or maybe the mafia are willing to sacrifice him... If they have a recruiting role again (as in the last two games), it would be a reasonable strategy.
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Post by whereyouthinkyoupoliying on Jun 18, 2014 19:32:03 GMT
More than half the day-time has already passed and the three early votes for Napkiraly stand unprotested and/or countered. Doesn't that pretty much mean that he's not Mafia? Not that I have any better suggestions. Meh! Quite possible... Or maybe the mafia are willing to sacrifice him... If they have a recruiting role again (as in the last two games), it would be a reasonable strategy. Sacrificing someone in the first round would be super unnecessary, though. It wouldn't have been much of a problem for the mafia to arrange their votes for this lynching without anyone noticing. So yeah, I'm pretty sure that Napkiraly is innocent but I don't have an actual suspect to put forth instead. So unless the ones who voted for him voluntarily change or take back their votes, that's probably it.
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Дьяково
6250+
Weird, but acceptable
Posts: 6,688
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Post by Дьяково on Jun 18, 2014 19:41:56 GMT
Quite possible... Or maybe the mafia are willing to sacrifice him... If they have a recruiting role again (as in the last two games), it would be a reasonable strategy. Sacrificing someone in the first round would be super unnecessary, though. It wouldn't have been much of a problem for the mafia to arrange their votes for this lynching without anyone noticing. So yeah, I'm pretty sure that Napkiraly is innocent but I don't have an actual suspect to put forth instead. So unless the ones who voted for him voluntarily change or take back their votes, that's probably it. Aye, I wasn't suggesting it was likely, just offering up a possible scenario where he's mafia and yet no protests... *shrugs*
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TSM
5000+
Ableist Kinkshamer
Posts: 5,195
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Post by TSM on Jun 18, 2014 21:21:58 GMT
More than half the day-time has already passed and the three early votes for Napkiraly stand unprotested and/or countered. Doesn't that pretty much mean that he's not Mafia? Not that I have any better suggestions. Meh! This is actually pretty good logic, so I guess I'm unvoting her.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2014 21:32:30 GMT
Why does everyone want to kill me!!! Makes it worse as all I hear outside is honk honk from the traffic jam outside.
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Post by The Beautiful Darkness on Jun 18, 2014 21:33:33 GMT
1 1/2 hours left, guys.
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Дьяково
6250+
Weird, but acceptable
Posts: 6,688
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Post by Дьяково on Jun 18, 2014 21:37:30 GMT
Why does everyone want to kill me!!! Makes it worse as all I hear outside is honk honk from the traffic jam outside. Even the traffic is out to get you!
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Post by whereyouthinkyoupoliying on Jun 18, 2014 22:23:52 GMT
Oh, wait - TBD, do you count "No vote" votes as votes? (weird sentence to write out)
Because if I changed my vote to No vote that'd make 3 No votes, which would be more than the votes for any specific person right now (unless I miscounted).
Or do you lynch whichever user gets the most votes, no matter the "No vote"s?
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Post by The Beautiful Darkness on Jun 18, 2014 22:25:49 GMT
Oh, wait - TBD, do you count "No vote" votes as votes? (weird sentence to write out) Because if I changed my vote to No vote that'd make 3 No votes, which would be more than the votes for any specific person right now (unless I miscounted). Or do you lynch whichever user who gets the most votes, no matter the "No vote"s? 'No vote' I just count as abstaining from voting. Lynches happen regardless, because I'm bloodthirsty.
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Post by whereyouthinkyoupoliying on Jun 18, 2014 22:27:55 GMT
Oh, wait - TBD, do you count "No vote" votes as votes? (weird sentence to write out) Because if I changed my vote to No vote that'd make 3 No votes, which would be more than the votes for any specific person right now (unless I miscounted). Or do you lynch whichever user who gets the most votes, no matter the "No vote"s? 'No vote' I just count as abstaining from voting. Lynches happen regardless, because I'm bloodthirsty. Damn, but yeah, I kinda figured.
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Post by The Beautiful Darkness on Jun 18, 2014 22:31:27 GMT
Grr! Why do you even know that?? Well I have a great track record, so I'm going to shoot a magic missile at the darkness and vote Napkiraly. Well... You don't really have 100% accuracy... TSM wasn't mafia when you voted to lynch her... She was recruited after being resurrected following your successful campaign to Lynch the other seer... Maybe he got the answer too soon? Going with this and voting Not Very Observant. I will vote for Hurdegaryp, in hopes of avoiding a first day bandwagon. I vote for jello, because why change a winning horse? 2 Votes for Nap 1 for NVO 1 for Hurd 1 for Jello
30 minutes left.
By the way, in the event of a tie, I will be using RNG to chose the lynch victim, so someone is going to die.
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Post by The Beautiful Darkness on Jun 18, 2014 23:09:46 GMT
It's midnight, the clock is striking 12. Undecided but running out of time, you hurriedly push @napkiraly into the well. He hits his head on the way down, and the water turns red with his life's blood.
While Nap is dying, you run to his home to investigate his identity. You discover a golden egg in his straw bed, and instantly realise that Nap was the golden goose and that you've all just pushed a fortune into the bottomless well.
Discouraged, you return to your own homes. It is now night...
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Post by desperatemarlas on Jun 18, 2014 23:11:25 GMT
I want the golden egg.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2014 23:16:38 GMT
I want the golden egg. Well you ain't gettin' it now. Honk. Do I still have to do the honking?
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Post by The Beautiful Darkness on Jun 18, 2014 23:18:23 GMT
I want the golden egg. Well you ain't gettin' it now. Honk. Do I still have to do the honking? Nah, but you're dead. So make like a ghostly goose!
ooooohonk!
*giggles*
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