The Return of The Pope: October Mafia Main Thread

Only just got back into comms range, so a bit late to say anything that'd help, it seems. Alsomtab
Et editing is awful. /Also, tablet editing is awful./ hrmph.

I am considering multiple players, unfortunately most of those considerations are of their innocence. You've not disproved anythingnI said, TBD, and I've got no reason to 'out' who I think is Cupid, etc, when the strongest feeling I get quite clearly is as I've said.

I'm out of earshot for most of the rest of the day, but my thoughts mean nothing, so shouldn't matter. Let's just see what tactics the bad guys employ, eh?

After an intense debate, which for some reason half of the town decided wasn't very important, you have come to what passes for consensus in mafia in that someone received more votes than any other player and we count that as success now.

Wytyg, a mafioso, has died.

It is now night. All players but the Pope are active, the Pope active as mafia tonight. This is kind of an important night, so please don't fuck it up.

So what happens to the people who Chandy recruited?

 Boo...

There are two left, but one is the Pope.

(Oh just re-read the "sad day for everyone" bit... Ah, I suppose because the Strawman got re-randomised. Well, it's a frightening day for everyone, but only potentially sad, and of immediate concern, for one person. Hopefully the Mafia, although it'd be 60%/40% against, objectively. 50%/50% from the POV of a townie who knows themselves to be unaffected, though, if that's not too fallacious an approach, in a Monty Hall Problem manner. And, yes, I'd personally choose to switch to the third choice, before you ask!)

Vote panicberry

I will confirm that BK is indeed suspicious. Suspicious of you. You're ringing all my bells, and (blind and fallible as I may be) I haven't seen you refute a thing I've said. It all clicks into place, whilst "myself not killing you" seems counter-intuitive, assuming I had the power all along.

I'm wary of the Strawman rule taking care of today's business (failure leads to Town loss more than success leads to Mafia loss), but if it's a gauntlet we must run then I'll consider it.

I thought you'd know the meaning of refute. It's not the same as deny. Never mind.

50:50 chance of Mafia/Townie dying (although that's dependent on my knowledge that it's not 40:60) leads us down two paths.

One of the Mafia dies, and if it is the Pope then there's a straight third-chance of Town win Day 5, but if wrong there's a further third-chance (half of the 2/3rds chance that remained) of Town win Day 6, but if that fails then it's a Mafia win. (Slight town advantage, if "1 Mafia, 1 Town" isn't an automatic Mafia Win Condition, and I've lost track what rules we work under, about that, in this locale.) If it isn't the Pope, Day 5 must seal the deal or Night 5 is your Pope win, for sure. (50:50, at that stage.) Overall, maybe advantageous, maybe not. I can't say for sure.

OTOH, one of the Town dies, and it's only a possible (i.e. half/half) Town win if the Pope wastes the move to kill the other Mafia. If he/she holds off, and kills a Townie then the day that follows leads to a Night 5 with either Vanilla Mafia and Townie (probably deemed Mafia win, even without the actual killing blow; with both Pope and Piper gone it's definitely "normal rules" again, unlike what our Mod said the other day back when the Piper was still active), Pope Mafia and Townie (Pope wins, but sounds like they'd need to go through the formality) or Pope vs. Vanilla Mafia (I don't know what happens then... it's a Mafia-Kill night, by my reckoning, but Pope seems to be counted as Mafia for these purposes, so maybe they privately vote for each other, or refuse to on principle, and our Mod tosses a coin or something). Anyway, despite the possibility of a Town win, logic would dictate to you that you/whoever shouldn't entertain the Pope killing the Mafia, and risk that consequence, so it's a certainty that it'll be a Mafia(-flavoured) win down this branch of probability.

So, now weigh a dubious possibility of a slight Town advantage against an virtually certain Mafiaesque advantage, in equal measure. That's not an end result of a 50:50 chance, but definitely tilted towards Town-loss. Someone will know which side of the scales is actually 100%, anyway, and they're now going to be working out whether they can realistically (and accurately) make it a regular Lynch of someone else, and not succumb by either default or unfortunate numbers.


Of course, I've been treating the Strawman position as being non-partisan in where it lands next, thus effectively the same as an untied (and maybe unwise) randomised vote result in the day(s) following this one. Ditto with how the Pizza effect lands, given I'm not sure the Erotic Pizza can knowingly act correctly to safeguard Town, at this time, so it can only be guesswork based on who the Pizza trusts. The Doctor position may be able to affect things, by guessing correctly the night-time target (or, on the night this person is the only Civilian left, if that comes to pass, defend themselves by default) but can at best hold off the inexorable Mafia win and perhaps give a marginal extra chance to the town through where the Straw has fluttered at that stage. However, this at least will be the most useful the Doctor will have been all game.

(Regarding the usefulness of the Doctor, I'm not saying they're inherently useless, just that in this case it's fact that they haven't so far been effective. Perhaps it could have been different. I think the Cop should have role-claimed, before dying. And persuasively enough to have gotten the Doctor (still themselves remaining anonymous) to protect them while scanning the whole group, and thus not themselves dying and simultaneously gaining information that proved themselves to be as told. Well, perhaps not invulnerable, in this case, given his Lover status in this game. However, that fact remained unknown, it's still a good plan in principle, and normally requires the Mafia to luck on killing the Doctor off and thus making the (outed) Cop vulnerable again before too much discovery had been shared. Or make the Doc doubt the Cop is who he says he/she is. But right now, the Doctor's efficacy is only increasing due to the smaller pool of possibilities. Which only really reeks of desperation.)

((Oh, and Lead man's existence in this game could have, although may not actually have in this case, been a complicating factor for the Cop. But that's get-roundable...))


Oh, I do hope you understand what I was rambling on about. But the TL;DR; is that what TBD wasn't right, and I don't know whether that's intentional diversion or not. If I seem a bit like a bulldog, it's because I'm just more and more convinced that the stance we're seeing just doesn't add up. And the responses to my thoughts on the matter are being attacked, which doesn't allay my feelings one jot. Good job it's only a game, or I'd think it was personal...

I'm going to be honest and say that this isn't too fun as well. There's too much....deception? Overthinking? Taking it too seriously? I'm not sure what, and I'm not aiming to point fingers. But it's something.

Surprise!

IIRC the strawman keeps their original role.

Voting closes tomorrow at midnight. So someone should actually vote.